Faksa brightest rising star
FC’s scouting director Dan Stewart tackles Player-X vs. Player-Y, the concerns about Mathew Dumba’s physical play at the next level, who has fallen from grace and risen from obscurity in the latest ‘Five For Stewart’.
1. I have a concern whether Matt Dumba will be able to play his physical game against larger and stronger competition at the next level, is that a valid concern?
You are not alone in this concern as most NHL scouts have had this question cross their minds at one point or another after watching how hard Mathew Dumba plays the game.
Let’s break down Dumba’s body type.
He tips the scales at around 180-pounds and a shade under six-feet as a 17-year-old. Dumba has a strong core but could added muscle in his legs and especially some upper body strength. He has plenty of room to add muscle to his frame and the work ethic to do it. Most think he will add another 20 – 25 pounds as he fills out. That said, I’m not sure I would expect him to grow substantially given his genes.
Take these physical former NHL defensemen who both spent a great majority of their NHL careers engaged in physical battles, playing a hard in-your-face style. Chris Chelios and Daruis Kasparaitis both played in the NHL and enjoyed long careers despite not being the prototypical six-foot-three and 220-pound blueliner.
Chelios was just 190-pounds and a shade under six-feet tall as was Kasparaitis, who tipped the scales at 210-pounds. Dumba takes not only physical elements of both of these former NHLers, but also body types. When you analyze it like that the risk does not seem too much.
2. Who in your opinion has been the draft class biggest rising star and on the other side of things who has fallen the farthest from the start of the year to the mid-season point?
This is a question that comes up each and every month but one that has a constant changing answer as well. Again as a riser, I would have to name Radek Faksa of the Kitchener Rangers is my top choice.
Not much was known of Faksa before he suited up for Steve Spott and the Kitchener Rangers this season, but his size, skating, work ethic, hockey sense and offensive skills have him situated at the top end of the first round on most draft boards after just a few months.
On the other side, many would say that Windsor Spitfire defender Nick Ebert’s plummet from once top-5 prospect to now considered a second rounder has been one of the most surprising.
However, Ebert’s production was expected to drop somewhat from his rookie output with the loss of PP specialist Ryan Ellis. Ebert’s game has been exposed this season as he is not really considered to have top pairing potential.
I would say for me though the drop in Sault Ste. Marie Greyhound defenseman Gianluca Curcuruto’s play has been the most disappointing as he was one of my favorites all last season and coming into 2011-12. He showed so much strong two-way potential and I really thought he would breakout this season offensively, but his game has instead regressed on both sides. Curcuruto looks shy and less willing to engage in the play by joining the rush as well as physically in his own zone.
3. After watching the CHL Top Prospects Game, who were the top performers in your opinion?
I will answer this by choosing a FC all-star team of sorts.
G – Matt Murray, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) – Team Cherry
Matt showed great composure, footwork and technical skill against what amounts to facing an all-star squad. He really was the top puck stopper at the event and likely would have beat Malcom Subban out for that honor if the later was not injured and could have made it to Kelowna. His draft stock was helped more than anyone’s because of his excellent 30 minutes of work (as much as 30 minutes can).
D – Derek Pouliot, Portland (WHL) – Team Orr
Pouliot played a safe and smart game, making strong breakout passes and timely pinches while maintaining strong defensive position each shift on the ice. For a prospect that had many scouts questioning his defensive game, the TPG did wonders to show the game he can play when he keeps things simple.
D – Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton (WHL) – Team Orr
What, no Matt Dumba?!?! Well he too could very well be up here but I chose Reinhart due to the fact that I have been hard on the big blueliner most of the year for his lack of intensity/aggressiveness and regressing footwork. Reinhart looked very good as he played a safe game rarely venturing past the half wall in the offensive zone and showing improved mobility coving his defensive gaps. Oh, and he scored one of the goals in a very tight checking game.
F – Tom Wilson, Plymouth (OHL) – Team Cherry
Wilson came out of the gate flying around laying the body multiple times and disrupting the flow for Team Orr as they were looking over their shoulders for the big Plymouth winger from the drop of the puck on. Showed his heavy fists while dropping the gloves with tough defenseman Dalton Thrower as well as his soft hands in the target-shooting contest the night before.
F – Mike Winther, Prince Albert (WHL) – Team Cherry
Winther looked great most of the nigh using his speed and creativity to generate chances for Team Cherry. His drive was not an issue tonight, as it has been some games with Prince Albert, and he showed that when he plays to his potential he can be rather effective in both zones.
F – Tanner Pearson, Barrie (OHL) – Team Orr
While the overager did not produce on the score sheet, Pearson showed that his smarts and hockey sense are high-end as he had plenty of shots that just missed the mark and created plenty of good scoring chances for his team.
4. We have had lots of ranking based questions like why is Player-X rated higher than Player-Y. Here are some specific responses to those questions.
“Why do you guys not like Maatta as much as most other publications?”
Simply put, Olli Maatta’s foot speed needs improvement. Although his skating looks smooth and fluid, he can be beat wide by marginally faster forwards. The big question/drawback for me with regards to Maatta though is his pro upside.
Sure he is smart and has good hockey sense, strong defensive reads and positioning but what type of NHL defenseman do we see him as?
Right now, because of his lack of offensive potential, I think he fits the mold of a middle pairing defensive first guy who is not going to win you many games but will not lose them for you either. That is a very attractive prospect to have in your system, just not a top talent for this draft with so many other difference makers available.
“Why do you have Thrower ahead of a guy like Pouliot?”
Consistency and sometimes his habit of trying to do too much is a concern with Derrick Pouliot although his game is flashy and full of offensive creativity. On the flip side, Dalton Thrower has really come on this season and is that do-it-all type defender in the mold of Vancouver’s Kevin Bieska.
“Why do you guys like Finn over Reinhart?”
While Griffin Reinhart wins the argument between the two in size, strength and physical prowess, the intelligence level is what gives the slight edge to Matt Finn for me. Finn just thinks the game so well.
5. What can one expect in your February Midterm Guide?
Well, for the NHL draft fan you can expect some very good feature stories on the top prospect for 2012, 2013 and even 2014. A top 100 ranking of the 2012 draft prospects, comprehensive mid-term stock watch profiles, mid-round prospect profiles you should know, an article on the 2013 draft and a ranking of the 2013 top 30 as well as profiles on the top-10 for 2014.
FC’s 2012 NHL Entry Draft Midterm is a must for any draft fanatic!
Don’t forget to email me or tweet your draft questions for next months column.
Dan Stewart is the scouting director of Future Considerations and can be found on Twitter. For all the latest Future Considerations news and posts, follow FC’s Official Twitter Feed, on YouTube and on Facebook!
